I had reasons to stalk the breakdown short that were valid:
1. Context of trade since beginning of session in CL. Specifically initial support at Aggressive Range Long into London open then support at Range Long followed by Resistance at Aggressive Range Long on test from below followed by break on volume through Range Long into 93.04 at pit open and subsequent bounce to 93.52. It WAS an aggressive stance to take and I said it a the time. In addition there was positive divergence on smaller time frames on the 93.04 low and it was pit open low.
2. 30/60 min was decidedly bearish though and unless I am picking a turn / CIT (which in this case it would have been at Range Long if I stalked long instead of short) I usually like to trade inline with what the 30/60 min is telling me and use smaller time frames for the executions.
3. Clear HOL FTD target and below that into Extreme on breakdown from Range Long.
Anyway I stalked the aggressive short and kept stalking it aggressively into potential BIL of the 93.52 high and needles to say it never paid off as I clearly had the direction, at least direction from Range Long, plain wrong today.
I stalked short for continuation down keying on Range Long and instead CL reversed, turned up, and then moved higher for the rest of the session... the up move starting from Range Long.
So I had a red day, and after a good week too, which is never fun heading into a long weekend.
I'm not going to get all down about it though. I'm writing this because I have been in the situation before where I've let a bad Friday bum out my weekend and it's not productive. I know there are other traders out there who have been in the same situation or who will be in the future...so maybe they see this, read it, and it helps.
It's not the first time I've had a bad Friday and it might not be the last. The fact is when we enter the market we don't know what is going to happen and sometimes trades don't work. That is trading. I have confidence in my strategy because I know it is profitable and while always mitigating risk I accept losses as part of the process.
I'm posting the CL chart below for oil so you can see what I am talking about above regarding stalking short for breakdown from Range Long:
Happy Memorial Day Weekend!